With central Asia and the Caspian region emerging as vital sources of energy supply, the new quest is for alternative and shortest transportation routes to export oil/gas from this region to other countries, especially the south Asian countries. Middle East being in a flux, particularly after the Iraq conflict and in the wake of the ongoing Iran imbroglio, energy-importing countries have been diversifying their sources of supply. Whereas Europe is looking towards Russian supplies, Japan and China are keen to tap the Russian Far East, Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Caspian region for their growing energy needs. China will need to boost its energy consumption by about 150 percent to maintain its economic growth rate.

For India, with its huge demand for energy, central Asia in its extended neighbourhood presents a potential source of energy. Being the sixth largest energy consumer in the world, India’s crude imports are expected to double in a decade. India’s major problem is connectivity with central Asian countries. The North-South Transport Corridor, launched in 2000 by India, Russia, and Iran, with the projection of carrying cargo of 20 million tonnes by 2010, is also beset with certain problems on the ground. It is against this background that Himalayan Research and Cultural Foundation (HRCF) in association with the Central Asian Studies Programme, School of International Studies (CASPSIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, organised a 3-day international seminar on Energy and Transport Linkages between central Asia and south Asia.

Seventeen leading academics, diplomats, area specialists, and energy specialists from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, China, Russia, Japan, Israel, USA, Netherlands, Belgium, and Pakistan along with over 100 Indian specialists from Himalayan Research and Cultural Foundation, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Indian Council of World Affairs, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, University of Jammu, University of Delhi, Mumbai University, and Punjab University participated in this seminar.

The seminar stressed the need to involve area specialists, economists, sociologists, and professionals for making detailed studies with policy oriented recommendations. The urgency of establishing professional institutional linkages between the two regions for sharing of experiences and knowledge on energy sector developments, including development of renewable energy sources, technology transfer, and other related fields, in view of the cultural, demographic, and socio-economic infrastructure in the region was underscored.

Governments and civil society in the region should take into account the future energy consumption rates and re-evaluate the development of domestic energy sector taking into consideration ground realities such as traditional energy sources, under-development of domestic distribution, infrastructures, and environmental factors.

The determining factor for laying of pipelines should be their commercial viability rather than power projection. Kazakhstan, which is the major oil/gas producing country in central Asia, has its oil exports being routed through pipelines to Russia and China. Considering the physical obstacles as well as the adverse security situation in Afghanistan and also reluctance of the interested parties to make huge investments, the central and south Asian countries can look for a reliable alternative option to bring Kazakh hydro carbon resources via China to south Asia. The existing infrastructure of Atasu-Alashankou pipeline improved India-China relations and also the prospects of Russian oil to this pipeline, will facilitate energy and transport linkages between central Asia and south Asia.

In view of little progress in regional integration of central Asia, India needs to promote energy dialogue with both Russia and China thus taking the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the unofficial Moscow-Delhi-Beijing triangle forward. India should explore the possibility of establishing joint ventures in Kazakhstan and other central Asian republics in petro-chemical industries to facilitate and promote economic development in the region. Governments of the region should facilitate and encourage cross-continental trade and remove the complexities of existing custom regimes and transport tariff systems.

Keeping in view that 1/5th of the world’s population is concentrated in south Asia and that major infrastructure linkages are already existing in the region, India needs to get actively involved in linking the north-south corridor through the corridor continuum in south Asia and even beyond to south east Asia. Prof K Warikoo, heading both HRCF and CASPSIS, expressed confidence in both to undertake the research projects/field studies for assessing the status and economic viability of the north-south corridor to south Asia and its linkage with the land-locked countries of central Asia.

India, an observer in SCO, must carry forward its energy initiatives in the region, undertaking joint projects with Russian oil/gas majors while also working towards joint development of the large Vankor deposit and the Kurmangazy project on the Caspian shelf. Interconnecting the south Asian and central Asian electricity grids would benefit all concerned, as only small investments are required for the purpose.

Ensuing regional energy security in central and south Asia demands adequate multilateral confidence-building measures and the parallel need for investments to build the infrastructure. The contradictions and competing trends among various countries in the region can be minimized if these countries are made stakeholders in the existing and prospecting projects of energy and transport linkages. Efforts to explore energy saving and oil conservation technologies should be promoted while developing new energy sources.

The seminar welcomed the re-opening of the India-China border trade point at Nathu La in Sikkim, which has the potential of becoming a major link between the landlocked central Asian states to the Indian port of Kandla on the Arabian Sea and recommended that governments of India and China similarly reopen the historical and traditional India-central Asia overland trade route via Ladakh and Xinjiang to the central Asian republics. It called upon the governments of India and China to accept the proposal of Jammu and Kashmir government to open the Leh-Demchuk route to western Tibet as an easier alternative route for pilgrimage to the Kailash-Mansarovar across the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. This will help not only in reducing the journey time and provide a safer passage to pilgrims, but also revive the traditional India-China trade via Ladakh and Tibet.

The problem of connectivity between central Asia and south Asia can only be solved through a cooperative and inclusive approach as against a competitive and exclusive one. Geo-economics and geo-culture must take priority over competitive geopolitics to address the problem of connectivity between the two important regions of Asia.