Does Barack Obama’s Presidency augur well for India? Already there are thousands of viewpoints floating around on how the Obama administration will handle relations with India.

In this connection, a talk organised at the India International Centre (IIC), New Delhi on 21 November 2008 was interesting for the divergent views and in-depth analysis.

Eminent foreign affairs experts like Lalit Mansingh, former Foreign Secretary & Indian Ambassador to the USA; Dr. Christopher Raj, Head, Centre for American Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University; Gautam Adhikari, senior journalist; Ted Osius, Political Minister-Counsellor, US Embassy in India; and Prof. Baladas Ghoshal, Visiting Professor, Third World Studies Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia spoke.

Positive for India

Opening the debate ‘Barack Obama and what it means for India’, Lalit Mansingh portrayed Obama’s victory as a positive development for India. He said that Obama suits India better than John McCain. “Obama’s background shows that he will be sympathetic to countries like India. In my view, there is no cause for anxiety at all. If we look at John McCain’s agenda for foreign policy, like Bush, he too believes the world is divided into two camps of good guys and bad guys. The bad guys include Russia and Iran, with which India has and would like to have good relations. So, had McCain won the election, it would have led to a difficult situation for us. Can we afford to have a difficult situation with Russia and China? I don’t think so. So I think there is no cause for panic at the election of Obama.”

Iraq War

Lalitman Singh further argued, “Obama has rightly sensed that Iraq was a diversion of the War on Terror from sanctuaries in Pakistan and Afghanistan. This kind of approach on terror is very important for India. Obama believes in what is called ‘smart power’, a blend of soft power and hard power. It is not that Obama will not use the military option, but he will be less inclined to do so.”

On the nuclear front, he noted, “Obama has strong views on non-proliferation and has made it clear that the ratification of the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) will be his top priority. India will be under enormous pressure to sign the CTBT”.

Respect for Gandhi

Ted Osius, Political Minister-Counsellor, US Embassy too looked at this new political development as a good sign for relations between the two countries – India and the United States of America. According to Osius, “Obama looks at Mahatma Gandhi for Inspiration. He has a lot of respect for Mahatma Gandhi”. In his view, “India should welcome the stand of the US president-elect on Afghanistan. He is in favour of renewing focus on Afghanistan and allowing the forces to stay there. Media reports of Obama going to hyphenate India and Pakistan are not true”. Osius expressed the view that India and America should work together in issues like clean energy and collaborate to solve energy problem that are good for both the countries.”

According to Ted Osius, “Obama is committed to democratic institutions, economic growth and openness.” He also talked about Obama’s positive comments on India’s scientific achievements like Chandrayaan I. Speaking on Obama’s sympathy for the victims of terror, he said, “Obama has expressed his prayers for the victims of terror attack in the recent bombing of Indian embassy in Afghanistan. We want the crucial relation between India and US to be maintained.”

Systemic Challenges

Christopher Raj, Head, Centre for American Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University began his speech on a note of caution. He said, “We need to look at the type of presidency emerging in the United States. The important question is, “Is Obama phenomena a true phenomena? If he achieves what he vouched for during campaigning, then he is an imperial president. But that’s not so easy. Will congress activism like in many other previous American presidencies, hamstring him? After he occupies the throne, he will have to face different interests emerging in the United States.”

According to Christopher Raj, it is to be seen whether Obama will be comfortable to function within the constraints and parameters, present in the political system of the US. He recalled the era of Jimmy Carter and Franklin Roosevelt and said as long as decision-making remains in the hands of bureaucrats, it would be difficult for Obama to achieve the right results.

Christopher added, “Jimmy Carter, the past US president, came to power with a face of human rights. He wanted a host of initiatives for human rights taken but he got into difficulty because of political constraints. But Obama is no Franklin Roosvelt who emerged out of a war. Obama’s rise was not out of any special or crucial circumstances but was an individual rise to Presidency. So it is to be seen how he will be able to implement the ‘human aspect’ he is talking about.”

Stand on Outsourcing

Gautam Adhikari, senior journalist, interpreted Obama’s victory on three planks.

First its impact on the bilateral relations between India and the US; second on South Asia and third its meaning for America. Adhikari is of the view that the huge Indian community of nearly two million will play an important role as a pressure group in American politics. “Obama can’t ignore this huge and richest ethnic group in America. This group will play a crucial role in getting CTBT and FMCT ratified. During campaigning, Obama had opposed outsourcing but I don’t think he will be able to convince the business community to stay away from outsourcing. No president can ban outsourcing.”

Giving his own understanding to Obama’s initial comment on sending a special envoy to Kashmir, Adhikari said, “In fact, he is essentially asking Pakistan to stay away from Kashmir and concentrate more on Afghanistan.” As far as South Asia is concerned, Adhikari believes Obama carries the best views on Afghanistan. “He wants to withdraw from Iraq and concentrate on Afghanistan, especially the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.’

Symbol of New America

Wrapping up his views on what Obama means for America, Adhikari concluded, “American democracy has changed a lot. We can see a cultural influx there. White population has come down from 85 percent to 74 percent Today you have Chinese, Japanese, Spanish and many other communities as part of American population. Obama is an outcome of that. He reflects change in America.”

Before the talk concluded, there were questions from the audience. One question was about the implication of appointing Sonal Shah as Obama’s advisor who allegedly has Viswa Hindu Parishad (VHP) links. The visitor wanted to know how good this appointment was for India. Reacting to the query, Lalit Mansingh said, “We shouldn’t be agitated over this appointment. Sonal Shah has denied her links with VHP. She was rewarded for her community services in the United States.”

Another question was on Afghanistan, whether it was a lost cause or not. To this Ted Osius, Political Minister-Counsellor, US Embassy replied, “Let us not give up hope. We want to see a stable and prosperous Afghanistan.”

–Jeevan Prakash