The Presidential election in Zambia on 30th October 2008 ushered in a multi party system which is a big development in the political history of Zambia. The victory of Rupiah Bwezani Banda also stood out for the transparency of the election process. ‘The transparency of the election, Zambia’s fifth since the end of one-party rule in 1991, was enhanced by the results from each polling centre being posted outside the building once the counting was over, and before the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) had officially announced them.’

The three defeated contestants such as Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front (PF), Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPNP) and Brig.Gen. Godfrey Miyanda of the Heritage Party (HP) are also part of multi party democracy. The untimely demise of late president Levy Mwanawasa caused this Presidential election, which has become both a challenge and opportunity for Zambia.

Every regime change comes up with its own set of implications, which poses a litmus test to the economy, polity as well as society. Zambians support Banda with lots of expectations. So the newly elected President and his government have an opportunity to demonstrate his own style of national management that will script the future destiny of the country.

New Government

Zambia’s current population is estimated at 11.5 million (July 2006). It is estimated (2003) that 9,20,000 adult Zambians are infected with AIDS virus and that 89,000 die every year from the disease. It must be remembered that health and education registered tremendous improvement; in terms of funding and improved living conditions of the workers under Banda’s predecessor.

Peter Henriot argues that it is highly unlikely that policies pursued by Mwanawasa in these sectors will see a fundamental transformation under Banda’s government, though during his campaign, he emphasized the need for the country to invest heavily in the education of its nationals.3 Perhaps the driving force of the new President’s attention to both sectors will be the expectations from the people.

Reasons for backwardness

One of the reasons why Zambia is still lagging behind is the low state budget that successive governments have bestowed on it. The international community feels that Zambia is almost halfway in its quest for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Zambians are banking hopes on the new President and his government (apart from the promises he made) to realise it. The new Government should take this issue on priority basis and spread health awareness programme along with education as it affects the human resource base of Zambia in a critical condition.

The Government should focus on Universal Child Education and Basic Education as sub-sector Investment programmes. The Pan Africa network and especially the education can be an important component for strengthening their existing education pattern. Along with it, the HRD of India produces educated and talented professionals, who are working in Schools and Universities across the world including African countries. Zambia can take advantage of it and strengthen the education sector.

Banda’s Challenges

The macroeconomic policies of Banda government should strike a balanced role between the state’s economy and private sector. This is to be a pre-requisite in the economic development. Mining and agricultural sector (such as cotton, dairy, coffee and sugar) will stand to benefit under privatization. Zambia has lots of investment potential in agriculture, tourism, mining, manufacturing and telecommunication, power generation and supply.

Undoubtedly, the late President Levy Mwanawasa will be remembered for exemplary management of the state’s economy. The late leader has handed down a persuasively sound economy based on diligence, prudence and integrity and this will make things esay for Banda. The private sector was rightly recognized and regarded as the engine for economic growth for the state.

Tackling Rural Poverty

Since 83 percent of the rural population of Zambia lives in poverty, the newly elected Government of Banda needs to ensure food sufficiency for the people and ensure supplies of agriculture inputs such as scientific seed, fertilizer, agriculture implements and water management for rural community. ‘Agricultural development was encouraged in view of the fact that it is the mainstay of the economy, in terms of food security and rural people, and also as a critical component in poverty reduction.’

Private sector development and agricultural expansion may supplement to strengthen food security support system. The agriculture infrastructure development must be a priority for this Government and connect agriculture production to market needs in urban areas. This will check rural migration to urban areas in search of employment.

Today, Indian companies are hastening the easing process of Green Revolution in Africa. ‘International Tractors Limited (ITL) is one of the top five tractor selling companies in India and exports tractors to Zambia. ITL has a marketing arrangement with TATA INTERNATIONAL.’5 Sonalika Agro is supporting the farmers with world class farming equipment for Green Revolution-II. India is also quite active in power generation sector in various countries including Zambia. ‘Egypt is the example where more than 100,000 Kirloskar pump sets are greening 200,000 hectares of desert land along the Nile for the last 40 years and are in operation at more than 50 large pumping stations. These pumping systems also work in South Africa, Lesotho, Zambia and Zimbabwe, making a difference in key sectors of economy.’

It will be interesting to watch the policies that the new President and his government will pursue in agriculture and in the development of private sector.

Mining Sector

Copper contributes 80 percent of the export revenue to Zambia. Mr. Felix Matati, points out, “India has a share of 50 percent of Zambia’s mining industry. The total Indian investment in Zambia is estimated to be US$2 billion, with capital flowing in other sectors like banking, health and education. We have had a long partnership in India, with investments in several areas. But what has been lacking was visibility. This zone will help in improving India’s profile in Zambia.”

As Neo Simutanyi, political scientist, observed, “if there is one key sector in the economy that has supported Zambia’s growth recorded or registered in the past seven years, it is the mining sector. The election of Banda, with all the possible consequences which a regime change entails, raises a number of implications for this vital sector of the economy, both on the part of the government and the investors.”

Firstly, while his predecessor was investor friendly, it remains to be seen if the same can be said of the new President. It is unknown if Banda shared similar sentiments simply as part of the collective or because he consciously subscribed to the new policy changes. What will be the new President’s stance on the issue, which has not died out up till now?

Secondly, how can Banda and his government reconcile the two positions without ensuring that either part losing out or feeling passed over? Will he and his government be able to retain investor confidence? Only time will fully address some of these questions. The Post newspaper reported on 12th November 2008 that over 30 percent of workers were earmarked for job losses. Already, ‘the mine owners have began laying off numerous workers for lack of profitability due to the fluctuating copper prices on the international market, exacerbated by the new mine taxes, while others are waiting to see how the new government will be before possibly pulling out or maintaining their presence.’

Impact of Recession

The Banda government needs to work with proper care and caution in this climate of ongoing global recession and maintain its copper mining growth as per expectation adopting cooperative view.

Alongside mining, tourism is one key investment sector such as Kafue National Park, Livingstone, Luangwa National Park and Lower Zamberi in Zambia. The investment in hotel industry, recreation packs, transport, recreational sports, abseiling, canoeing, rafting, microliting, water life, bunji jumping, fishing, wave boarding, game viewing, walking safari, infrastructure and telecommunication are areas of focus. This government should promote tourism and friendly people to encourage the employment sector.

Role of Opposition

The Banda government enjoys a considerable advantage in the National Assembly and expects no major hurdles in passing laws in the House.

The rule of law should be the basis for newly elected governance. The multi party system will bring in fruits of political and economic development to serve the common man, if they are implemented in the true spirit. Here the role of the Opposition is equally important not only to give their opinion on the policies of governance but also to provide a platform for mass campaign against anti-people policies of the government.

Conclusion

Zambia is the founder member of AU, SADC, COMESA and Africa Economic Community (AEC). All regional institutions have a common mandate to strengthen democratic aspirations. The present government has additional responsibility to keep its position high in all these institutions and promote democratic mechanism of governance and curtail corruption in society, which is an issue that degrades credibility of government at national level and its reputation as a regional power.

People’s participation during this election was an indicator of producing major socio-economic change and political development. That Banda is assuming his Presidency at a time of many national challenges is significant. Zambia’s economy is not doing well, inflation has soared to 15 percent and above from the 7 percent it was at the time of Levy Mwanawasa’s death. Nearly 70 percent of the population living in abject poverty are without jobs and the global financial crisis will mean more misery to them. The ill effects of them are already haunting Zambia’s economy in the form of crashing commodity prices.

Obviously, the Head of State should rise up to the expectations of the people. Africa including Zambia faces several challenges in building the ITC infrastructure; they are either nonexistent or national and international communications backbones are of low capacity. It is expected that Zambia government will work to strengthen ties with the international fraternity, build political stability, pursue economic reforms and ensure social upliftment of the down trodden sections under South-South cooperation. As the member of many regional organizations, the government is in a position to play a vibrant role to accelerate socio-economic development and stabilise political democracy in the region.