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Indo-Russian relations are said to have withstood the winds of change. Both
countries enjoy ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’. The political
meet between the leaders of the two countries extends to the economic and the
defence sector, which form an integral part of the bilateral relationship. These
meetings have helped in strengthening the ties during and after the Putin era.
Now that times are fast changing with significant developments around the world,
such as the economic downturn in Europe, revolutionary movements in the Middle
East and failure of Pakistan in curbing terrorist movements; the Indo-Russian
Summit assumed tremendous significance. It was also considered important on
account of the serious challenges faced by governments of both the countries on
the domestic front. What will be the effect of these changes on Indo-Russian
relations? Does the present conform to the past? Is this an opportunity or a
challenge for India? Is there hope for a secured future or a change in
relations? These are some of the questions that inevitably surface in this
changing international and national order with regard to a relationship that is
said to have ‘evolved over time’.
Intense Groundwork
In October 2000, the ‘Declaration of Strategic Partnership between India and the
Russian Federation’ was signed in New Delhi. Since then there has been all-round
development in bilateral cooperation. In this declaration, the system of Annual
Summits was institutionalized. Since the year 2000, twelve summits have taken
place. The twelfth summit was held recently from 15-17 December 2011, when
Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh visited Russia. These summits and
regular ministerial level consultations led to an intensification of political
cooperation.
The intensive preparatory work for this annual summit included visits by
numerous ministerial level delegations from India and involved the convening of
the India-Russia Joint Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological
and Cultural Cooperation and the India-Russia Joint Commission on
Military-Technical Cooperation. Ambassador Malhotra described the recent
intensity of India-Russia contacts as “most extraordinary and encouraging”,
noting that during the last six months alone there have been visits from India
to Russia by Home Minister P. Chidambaram (June 28-30), Tourism Minister Subodh
Kant Sahay (September 21-24), Defence Minister AK Antony (October 3-5), Power
Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde (November 8-9), Commerce Minister Anand Sharma
(November 9-11), Steel Minister Beni Prasad Varma (November 9-12), External
Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna (November 15-17), National Security Advisor S.S.
Menon (November 21-23) and Shipping Minister G.K. Wasan (November 26-28).
Preceding the Summit, the Russian Envoy to India, Mr Alexander M. Kadakin,
described the overall motto of the Summit as “we are with India in rain or
shine, and we expect that our nuclear cooperation, despite all quarrels and
internal problems, will continue and we are ready to assist”. India and Russia
were expected to sign a total of nine agreements during the forthcoming summit
in diverse areas, including economic issues, military and energy cooperation,
out of which they signed five. Russia described India as a ‘super power in the
making’ and ruled out selling any military equipment to Pakistan. Moreover,
despite the internal problem with regard to the Kudankulam plant in Tamil Nadu,
Russia looks forward to expanding its nuclear cooperation with India. India
agreed on the terms and conditions for the Russian credit for units 3 and 4 of
the Kudankulam nuclear power project.
Analysing the Summit
Besides political issues, cooperation between India and Russia extends to the
sphere of defence, civil nuclear energy, space, science and technology,
hydrocarbons, trade and investment, cultural and humanitarian fields. During the
visit of President Dmitri Medvedev to India in December 2010, it was decided to
elevate the relationship to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic
Partnership”. It was also decided that several bilateral meetings and dialogues,
at both political and official levels, would be carried out in order to ensure
regular interaction between the two countries and to maintain the momentum of
cooperation.
Before leaving for Moscow on 15 December, Dr. Manmohan Singh made a statement
where he laid emphasis on discussing the “crisis facing the global economy and
the political developments in India’s extended neighbourhood, including West
Asia, the Gulf and Afghanistan and the impact of all this on peace and stability
in the world”. Also, discussions on further enhancement of India’s consultations
in international forums like the United Nations Security Council, G-20, BRICS as
well as the East Asia Summit, which Russia has recently joined, were stated to
take place.
The Russian Federation expressed strong support to India for a permanent seat in
an expanded UN Security Council. Both the sides expressed satisfaction with the
cooperation in the UN Security Council since 01 January 2011 when India joined
the Council as a non-permanent member, and agreed to take this cooperation
forward. During the Summit, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh got Russia to
reiterate its support for India’s bid to become a permanent member of the United
Nations Security Council, apart from memberships of the 46-nation Nuclear
Suppliers Group.
Both sides acknowledged the necessity of addressing both traditional and new
security threats – terrorism, extremism, WMD proliferation, illicit drug
trafficking, organized crime and maritime piracy. They expressed readiness to
work closely within the framework of the East Asia Summit, which they regard as
a leaders-led forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic
issues of common interest and concern with the aim of promoting peace, stability
and economic prosperity in East Asia.
Russia also welcomed India’s intention to join the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) as a full-fledged member, and expressed the belief that its
participation would significantly increase the political weight of the SCO and
give new quality and dimension to cooperation within the organizations’
framework. Both sides laid emphasis on strengthening cooperation among BRICS
countries, especially in view of a precarious economic situation around the
world. The bilateral Moscow Declaration between India and the Russian Federation
on International Terrorism signed on 06 November 2001 in Moscow was recalled and
reiterated that States that aid, abet or shelter terrorists were as guilty of
acts of terrorism as their actual perpetrators. Thus, both sides recognized the
need to address global issues that have a profound impact on both India and
Russia. India welcomed Russia’s impending entry into the WTO.
Internal Challenges
Even though the PM congratulated President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin on
the success of the December 4 Duma elections, both sides knew and were well
aware of the tensions building up within the country. The recent elections in
Russia saw Putin’s United Russia party suffer loss of popularity, barely
reaching a 50 percent majority. One nationwide exit poll even suggested that
United Russia probably won just 43 percent of the vote. There was claim of the
election being rigged. There were mass protest movements and several arrests
were made, the most noted was that of protest blogger Alexei Navalny, all of
which only aggravated the dissent amongst the people of Russia. On the other
hand, in India, the government continues to face serious challenges in the wake
of corruption charges against some of the government officials and
anti-corruption movements, and also opposition with regard to setting up nuclear
power plants in Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu.
In Russia, there are six opposition parties, but none is said to possess a
leadership equal to that of Mr. Putin, whose success in stabilizing the society,
promoting economic growth and will to clamp down on rebels in Chechnya, made him
widely popular. He remained president until 2008, when he had to step down
because the Russian constitution limits a President to only two consecutive
terms. It was then that Medvedev was chosen by Putin. Moreover, it was under
Putin’s leadership that bilateral relations between India and Russia saw
significant developments in all realms.
On India’s side, the atmosphere is favourable towards Russia and any internal
challenge within India will not seriously affect the bilateral relationship.
Though these internal problems do pose some challenges, it would be premature to
take any significant action based on these new improvements. Though these
challenges are serious, it is difficult to anticipate their ability to bring
about drastic changes. Hence, in these challenging times, India should try and
maintain the confidence of the people and the leadership in bilateral relations.
The agreements signed should be tried and put into effect as soon as possible.
Towards Greater Cooperation
Russian foreign and security policy is based on the concept of a ‘multi-polar’
world, first formulated by former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Yevgeni
Primakov. It is in this context that Russia has its interest in the South Asian
region, where it gives primary importance to India. There is great interest in
Indian studies, dance, yoga and music in Russia. An India Cultural Festival
celebrating the 150th birth anniversary of Rabindranath Tagore was held in
Russia in 2011 and a Russian Cultural Festival will be held in India in 2012.
After India’s nuclear deal with the USA and Russia’s dealings with Pakistan,
there were definitely some concerns expressed by both the sides. However, these
concerns were addressed immediately. Recently, in the wake of an uproar over a
move to ban Bhagwad Gita in Siberia, the Russian Ambassador immediately
expressed sadness over the development, saying it was “inadmissible” that a holy
scripture is taken to court and said that the Chief Director for Human Rights Mr
Vladimir Lukin took this case under his special control.
Looking Ahead
History stands testimony to the fact that Russia (former Soviet Union) has been
one country which has stood by India. Both countries have witnessed ups and
downs, but when it came to trust, they relied on each other. The future of the
Indo-Russian relationship completely depends on the approach of both governments
towards each other. A strong political motive will lead to strong cooperation in
the defence and economic sectors. As we approach the 65th anniversary of the
establishment of formal diplomatic relations between India and Russia in 2012,
we need to realize that in this changing world order a trusted ally is very
important to address some of the challenges that might arise in times unseen. In
a time when India’s neighbourhood is going through a state of political and
economic turmoil, and when the West is facing economic downturn, the
India-Russia bilateral relationship stands out as – in the words of Dr. Manmohan
Singh – “a factor of peace, progress and stability in the world”.
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