|
In January 2011, protests began in Yemen, in both the South and the North of the
country. Initial demonstrations were against the government’s proposals for
further amendment to the Constitution of Yemen, rampant unemployment and abysmal
economic conditions, and the prevailing corruption in the country. The initial
stimulus for the unrest undoubtedly came from the regional upheaval, but the
reasons for the unrest lie in Yemen’s own unique set of problems, mainly
economic.
The ‘Day of Rage’ Dawns
The demonstrators soon included the demand for the resignation of President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, who has also been facing internal opposition from his close
advisors since 2009. Many of his military and civilian advisors have since
abandoned him. A major demonstration involving about 16,000 persons took place
in Sana’a on January 27, and soon thereafter human rights activist and policeman
Tawakeel Karman made a call for ‘A Day of Rage’ on February 3. Some news reports
claimed the organisers were calling for a million-strong protest. In response,
Saleh announced that he would not seek another Presidential term in 2013.
On the ‘Day of Rage’, over 20,000 demonstrators held a rally in Sana’a, while
some protests also took place in Aden. A counter demonstration, comprised of
soldiers and some bureaucrats supporting Saleh, took place the same day. On
February 11, however, concurrent with the resignation of President Mubarak of
Egypt, further protests took place in the country’s first ‘Friday of Rage’. The
following Friday, on February 18, massive demonstrations, comprising tens of
thousands of people took place in Aden, Sana’a and Taiz. In Sana’a, the
demonstrators marched towards the Presidential palace, forcing their way through
police barricades. Three people were killed in the violence that followed, one
of them due to hand grenade injuries. There was also gunfire in Aden, and the
riots continued overnight and security forces killed one demonstrator.
Thereafter, protests became more widespread and killings continued. By early
March 2011, elements of the Army had joined the protesters. A number of
important figures in the General People’s Congress and in the President’s
Cabinet resigned in protest against President Saleh’s continued rule. In
response, the General People’s Congress, on March 22, declared a State of
Emergency and suspended the Constitution.
‘End of the Road’ for Saleh?
A month later, on April 23, Saleh initially accepted a Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) plan, granting him amnesty in return for ceding power, but later reversed
his stand, claiming that his own departure from Yemen would mean that the
country would be “handed over to militant elements”. Saleh continued his efforts
to contain the agitation. By May, the Yemini government was in open conflict
with tribal leaders, including Hashid and Al Ahmar, in addition to the
anti-government forces and militant elements, including Al Qaeda elements
present in the country. On June 3, Saleh was seriously injured in an attack on a
mosque in the presidential compound in Sana’a, suffering from a collapsed lung
and extensive burns on his body. He was taken to Saudi Arabia for further
treatment and a caretaker government with Vice President Abdu Rabo Mansour Hadi
in charge was set up. The unrest in Yemen focussed on securing an end to the
Saleh administration.
The GCC, however, persisted in its efforts to reach an amicable agreement to the
Yemen crisis, and finally Saleh, on 23 November, after 3 earlier abortive
efforts, signed a GCC-sponsored, Saudi-inspired and US-backed power transfer
agreement. Under this agreement, Saleh will hand over power to Vice President
Hadi, within 30 days, acting as caretaker in the interim period. Early elections
are also scheduled, within 90 days of the handover. In return, Saleh and his
family will enjoy immunity from prosecution, something which the opposition was
unwilling to provide earlier.
Revisiting the Troubled Past
The ongoing unrest in Yemen has to be understood in terms of the country’s
troubled history. The country has a 23.4 million population, with the
predominant religion being Islam, comprising Zaidis (Shias), generally found in
the north and northwest of Yemen and an almost equal number of Shafe’i Sunnis
living in the south and the southeast. Political tension in Yemen is a result of
President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s uninterrupted rule in Yemen since 1978. Saleh has
been unable to harmonise the country’s social and political divisions, which
have been exacerbated by the regional tensions arising of the tribal structure
of Yemini society.
The Popular Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY - South Yemen) and the Yemen Arab
Republic (YAR - North Yemen) united into one nation in 1990 and in the
Constitution of the same year; a repatriation of power was agreed upon and set
up, to preserve the interests of both parties. There were deep irreconcilable
political divisions between the two sides of the coalition government and a
civil war broke out in 1994, following which the balance of power shifted in
favour of the leader of North Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh. The army intervened;
Aden was recaptured and the leaders of South Yemen, including former South Yemen
President Ali Salim al Beidh, went into exile.
By 2007, the growing disapproval of the Sana’a government in the south led to
the creation of a Southern Separatist Movement. The main complaint of the
Southerners was that there was electoral forgery in favour of the ruling party
and non-compliance of the power sharing agreements set up under the 1990
Constitution. Southerners also complained of injustices done to them over the
years; non payment of government pensions, illegal lands requisitions,
widespread corruption and intimidation by minor functionaries, which remained
unattended. The economic disparity between the two portions of the country also
rankled the South. Despite being rich in natural resources, the South remained
economically crippled, while the North prospered.
Saleh initially remained dismissive of the Southern Movement and the legitimacy
of its claims, but, in view of increasingly violent clashes in the south of the
country, made some attempts at a compromise. These attempts lacked sincerity and
the level of frustration of the South grew to the extent that most southern
tribes swore allegiance to the movement and offered manpower and armed support
to the opposition.
The Problems are Legion
There are intense social inequalities in Yemini society. Corruption is
widespread and the economy has suffered repeatedly, first due to the civil war
and multiple insurgencies by Yemen’s fractious tribes, and then due to the
activities of the country’s many militant groups. Social disparities are
growing, and the erstwhile middleclass has now become impoverished, while the
rich have become richer. The cost of living has become prohibitive and this has
led to alienation of Yemini society with the Government. In addition, Yemen’s
limited oil and water resources are depleting rapidly, giving rise to the mind
boggling future of Yemen, if changes do not occur to alleviate the situation.
On May 29, Islamic militants took over the southern coastal town of Zinjibar,
giving credence to claims that the near-civil war like conditions in Yemen had
strengthened the hands of extremist elements. It was reported in the press that
over 300 fighters had taken over the city after government troops stationed
there were moved elsewhere where they were required. Many press reports carried
news that the militants possibly belonged to the regional franchise of Al Qaeda,
known as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Other reports, however,
claimed that though the region is an AQAP stronghold, the men were a group of
local tribesmen, known as the Ansar al Sharia, who wished to set up a
fundamentalist Islamic State in the southern part of the country, as the Taliban
did in Afghanistan. The Government carried out air raids on the city to dislodge
the militants, reducing swathes of the city to rubble.
Covert Foreign Presence
There has been a large escalation in the US presence in Yemen since the suicide
bombing attack on a US Navy destroyer, USS Cole, in Aden harbour in October of
2000. An American advisor on Homeland Security to the US President met President
Saleh soon after the Cole attack to discuss mutual cooperation in the ‘War on
Terror’. For the fiscal year 2010, the US Congress approved $58.4 million for
Yemen. The same year, the US Defence Department provided $150 million for
training and equipment. In 2011, the Obama Administration requested the US
Congress for $106 million in US economic and military assistance to Yemen
(Source: March 2011 Congressional Research Report). In February, the Obama
Administration requested an additional $115 million for the same purpose. This
was after the US Administration had expressed its “deep concern” over the
situation and hoped for a “peaceful transition of power (including support for
the GCC Plan mentioned above) in the country”.
US Special Operations troops have deployed in Yemen and are located in a
counterterrorism camp, identified as ‘Camp Demonier’ in Djibouti, run by the
CIA, the Marines and the Special Forces. Soon thereafter, the Joint Special
Operations Command also set up a centre there for the targeted assassinations of
Al Qaeda members and ‘terrorists’. US funds have flown generously into Yemen
since then, despite the doubtful successes of the operations. The US and indeed
the UK are involved in a covert military campaign, centred on anti-terrorism in
Yemen, against Al Qaeda cells in the Southern Yemini governorate of Abyan. Press
reports speak of the US using air strikes and drone attacks in an attempt to
kill the American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the leader of the AQAP and other top
Al Qaeda based in Yemen. The presence of seasoned militants, who have returned
to the country after the war in Iraq, Guantanamo Bay returnees to Yemen and the
presence of even radicalised foreign nationals, including former American
citizens, some of whom have converted to Islam, makes the current situation in
Yemen extremely complicated.
|