ECONOMY

January 2012

 
 

 

 

 

 
 
 

The Indian-Brazilian Win-Win Game

By Josal L. Pellegrino *                             

Their respective performances explain why Brazil and India are still bravely resisting the adversities arising from the global economic crisis. Financial development, efficiency and size of banks and other financial services, as well as the business environment, financial stability, transparency and market leadership in both countries impel consistent bilateral economic cooperation in trade, investment and tourism. Their economies have inherent advantages – stability, based on private initiative, openness to the world market and a stable currency      

 
   

They may be very different in their respective gigantic sizes – India has 1.2 billion people (the second largest population in the world) and Brazil ‘only’ less than 200 million, the fifth largest in the world. Brazil has an area of 8.51 million sq km, making it the largest country in the Southern Hemisphere, and India ‘only’ 3.28 million sq km, the largest country in South Asia.

Comparable Economic Performances

But they have had a rather similar economic performance since the mid 20th century. Brazil’s GDP increased by 7 percent from 1950 to 1961, 4 percent between 1962 and 1967, 11.1 percent from 1968 to 1973 (First Oil Crisis) and 6.9 percent from 1974 to 1980. In 1981, however, the GDP declined by 4.4 percent, contracting again by 4 percent in 1990, and once again by 0.9 percent in 1992, after having increased by only 1.1 percent in 1991. But the average increase of Brazil’s GDP for the whole period 1981-1992 was positive, 2.9 percent, notwithstanding the hindrances of the so-called ‘Lost Decade’. In 1994, the Plano Real succeeded in stabilizing the economy and Brazil resumed growth on a self-sustainable basis. It increased from 4.4 percent in 2000 to 5.1 percent in 2008. Due to the economic crisis of 2009, the Brazilian GDP practically did not grow in that year, but recovered significantly the following year, to achieve 7.5 percent of increase in 2010. Despite the ongoing global crisis, the forecast for the GDP increase in 2011 is roughly 3 percent.

India, on the other hand, grew at an annual rate of 5.5 percent from 1980 to 1989, undergoing a temporary decline in its GDP growth rate from 6.9 percent in 1989 to 4.9 percent in 1990 and to

1.1 percent in 1991 like Brazil. In the last four years, the Indian economy has experienced outstanding levels of development, growing from 9.4 percent in 2007 to 8.3 percent in 2010. Today, India’s economy is the ninth largest in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). India emergence as an important global trader is underscored by its rise as the seventh largest exporter and the eleventh largest importer in the world.

Battling Economic Adversities with Strength and Substance

Their respective performances explain why Brazil and India are still bravely resisting the adversities arising from the global economic crisis. Financial development, efficiency and size of banks and other financial services, as well as the business environment, financial stability, transparency and market leadership in both countries, impel consistent bilateral economic cooperation in trade, investment and tourism. Their economies have inherent advantages – stability, based on private initiative, openness to the world market and a stable currency.

Taking into account the stability of its currency, its banking system and the risk of the sovereign debt crisis – three very important elements in the analysis of economic stability – Brazil today finds itself in a rather stable situation, after receiving US$160 billion in Foreign Direct Investments in the last 7 years (40% of the total FDI directed to the whole of Latin America). In 2011 alone, the country lured around US$60 billion in FDI (including some investments from India as well). Out of the 500 major trans-national companies in the world, more than 400 have invested or are investing in the country. Indian investments in Brazil are directed to the emerging areas of information technology, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, besides oil, taking advantage of the recent huge off-shore oil findings in Brazil.

Burgeoning Economic Partnership

The awareness of their respective capabilities and the need for expanding their economies has enabled Brazil to emerge as India’s largest trading partner in Latin America. India became one of the most important foreign direct investors in Brazil in 2011. India and Brazil are already cooperating in several areas of mutual interest like science & technology, pharmaceuticals, space, processed food and consumer goods, infrastructure and industrial projects, automotive components and engineering goods, chemical products, agro-chemicals, pesticides and insecticides.

The three sectors that have become extremely important for present day India-Brazil relations include energy – particularly tapping the world fuel ethanol market, IT and software, since Brazil’s IT market is estimated to be over US$25 billion and pharmaceuticals/biotechnology, which is estimated to be US$12 billion.

Among the main Indian groups already established in Brazil, or on the way to doing so, are TATA Motors, TATA Consultancy, TATA Steel, Reliance, Essar (petrochemicals, steel, mining), United Phosphorus Ltd, Renuka Sugars, Micromax, Infosys, Suzlon Group (which became very active in the area of eolic energy in the State of Ceará, in association with some local partners), Arcelor Mittal, Kenersys Kalyani Group, Wipro, Ashok Leyland, Ranbaxy, Wockhardt and ONGC.

On the other hand, some Brazilian companies are already well established in India, like WEG Industries (India) Pvt Ltd, Gerdau and Marcopolo. Tata Marcopolo, which is very active in the area of bus manufacturing, is a joint venture with the Tata Group. Other companies have become active in the Indian market through an association with local partners, like the company LARA that works in conjunction with Antony Waste Handling Cell Pvt Ltd. Other companies like EMBRAER, VALE and PETROBRAS have made inroads in India through their offices in the region.

In 2008, the value of Indo-Brazil bilateral trade exceeded US$4.5 billion, but was still far from the potential of two important global traders. In 2010, this value surpassed US$7 billion, and in 2011, it is expected to reach US$10 billion, as established by the concerned Indian and Brazilian authorities as their short term goal. Accordingly, in the beginning of December, the figures had already surpassed US$9 billion.

The types of products the two countries exchange are a reflection of the requirements of their respective markets during specific periods. In case domestic markets are not able to produce a certain product, the same is then imported from the other country. The main products exported by Brazil to India include airplanes, motor pumps, raw sugar, crude oil, copper sulphates, soya oil, denatured alcohol, other minerals of copper and its concentrates, asbestos, valves, and precious and semi-precious stones. Among the main products exported by India to Brazil include diesel oil, equipment related to wind energy, coke of coal, lignite or peat, naphtha, cotton and polyester yarns, pigments, medicines and chemicals, vaccines for human medicines and aviation fuel.

The economic partnership is a win-win game that both Brazil and India are likely to engage in for a long, long time.

 
* The writer is the Consulate General of Brazil in Mumbai                   

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