Que Sera Sera! Tomorrow is so unpredictable. Many of us fear about catastrophes that could kill our future. Global warming is not an exception. Life on earth would miserably be in grave danger unless we embrace new measures, ethics, and values to guide our lives on our gradually warming planet. Today is the right time to think over repeatedly how would we erase the apocalyptic vision of a scorched and flooded world ravished by global warming. Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage all of us on the scale of the greatest devastation by redrawing the entire map of the world into a new look.

Who Done It?

Despite the opinions by some environmentalists that global warming is a natural cause, there is scientific consensus that the earth’s climate is changing due to human use of oil, coal, and natural gas. As our atmosphere has an inbuilt system of gasses for temperature control, when the sun’s ray strikes and warms the earth, these gases operate like a blanket (greenhouse), which traps some of the heat inside and releases some into the space. Such greenhouse effect at the atmosphere warms the earth enough to comfort the planet’s inhabitants. Global temperatures have varied naturally over the earth’s long history, but in the past hundred years, carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases have accumulated in the atmosphere and caused warming extraordinarily in the known geologic records.

It is as if we have added a second blanket to the one present naturally. As forests are the primary absorbents of carbon dioxide, deforestation as well as our use of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal have caused this unnatural accumulation of gases in the atmosphere and consequential rapid warming trend.

As the impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe, this calamity could lead us to various infectious diseases. Whereas cold winter weather reduces the spread of infectious diseases by killing infectious organisms and carrier species, warmer and wetter weather could increase the spread of infectious diseases. Increase in flooding and damage to water and sewage infrastructure can further encourage the spread of diseases. A case report by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine determined that 160,000 people die every year due to the effect of global warming and the figure could almost double by 2020. “Climate change could bring some benefits, such as lower cold-related mortality and greater crop yields in temperate zones, but these will be greatly outweighed by increase rates of other diseases,” said Professor Andrew Haines of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Further, in his statement, the professor stated that small shifts in temperatures could extend the range of mosquitoes that spread malaria and other infectious diseases.

Across the world, vehicle pollution is quite high in every three out of four overpopulated cities in developing countries. As concentration of photochemical pollutants like ozone tend to increase temperature, 21,000 people die due to air pollution each year in central Europe alone. Research findings show that a temperature rise of 2oF could double or triple the number of heat-related deaths in the region like Atlanta. In 1995 a heat wave killed more than 500 people in Chicago and heat intensity is likely to rise in future in the region. Extreme heat waves caused more than 1,500 deaths in India in 2003 as scientists in the subcontinent have linked the deadly heat waves to climate change and warned of more to come if we couldn’t control the rising trend of global warming. As methane shares 23 percent of greenhouse gases, a study by the Brazilian government has found that India’s 450 hydroelectric projects release 33.5 million tonnes of methane every year. In this finding published by the Netherlands-based Journal on Earth and Environmental Science, it’s also mentioned that dams in Brazil emit only 21.8 metric tonnes of methane every year and those in China emit 4.4 metric tonnes. However, as per a report in Hindustan Times, RK Pachauri of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated methane emission from hydro plants was not found to be substantial during the IPCC’s assessment.

Species Threatened

Melting of polar ice and mountain glaciers may cause sea levels to rise by at least three feet, probably more, if the average temperature increased to 5oC—warming that could difficult to avoid. Consequently, the world’s plants and animals are at risk of extinction as habitats are destroyed and ecosystems unravel. A research study in the journal Nature quoted that around 15-37 percent of all the species on the planet could be driven to extinction by the climate change between now and 2050. Head of the research group Professor Chris Thomas of the University of Leeds, West Yorkshire said, “If the projections can be extrapolated globally and to other groups of land animals and plants, our analyses suggest that over a million species could be threatened with extinction”. Are we human beings hastening ourselves to the endangered list? The researchers concluded that only the minimisation of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration of carbon could save a substantial percentage of terrestrial species from extinction. “If one million species become extinct, it’s not just the plant and animal kingdoms, the beauty of the planet will suffer”, said Dr Klaus Toepfer, Head of the United Nations Environment Programme.

Polar bears, the world’s largest bear, should now be classified as a ‘vulnerable’ species based on a possible 30 percent decline in their worldwide population over the next 35 to 50 years. As of now, there are around 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears in the Artic region, but sea ice in the region has declined over one million square miles—the size of Norway, Denmark, and Sweden combined. As polar bears need sea ice to hunt for seals, melting of artic ice due to global warming leads to the demise of the species. According to a report by International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), polar bears around Hudson Bay, Canada, now number around 1,000, declining from 1,200 not so long ago. A report in the journal Polar Biology by researchers of the US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Centre, Canadian Wildlife Service, and others has revealed a story about a polar bear killing a female polar bear. “During the last 24 years of our research on polar bears in southern Beaufort Sea region of Alaska and 34 years in north-western Canada, we haven’t seen other incidents of polar bears staking, killing, and eating other polar bears. We hypothesise that nutritional stresses related to the longer ice-free seasons that have occurred in the Beaufort Sea in the recent years may have led to the cannibalism incidents we observed in 2004", the researchers noted in the abstract of their study.

As birds and animals are stressed by rising temperature, they are now heading north and south away from equatorial regions that have become too hot for them. But the question is will the food and shelter resources be as valuable as what they left behind? According to IUCN report, almost 11 percent of overall bird population of the world are threatened with extinction while two-third of the planet’s 9600 bird species are in the state of decline. Rising of sea level is likely to threaten prime feeding and breeding grounds for millions of birds throughout the world, including mallards, red knots, pintails, plovers, warblers, and orioles. Migration of Canadian geese is being affected now by climate change as these birds are arriving in Hudson Bay, during the summer, before their food (marsh plants) sprouted in the bay. As the hungry birds cannot wait for the plants to sprout they eat the plants roots––destroying their own future food supply. Sooty shearwater, an American west coast bird, is also one of the species whose chance of being extinct in near future is so high. In recent years, population of the bird was five million but is now reduced to 450,000. According to Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), US, the population of sooty shearwaters off the coast of California and Washington declined by 90 percent between 1987 and 1994, a period when sea surface temperatures increased.

Water World

Accelerating meltdown of Antarctic and Artic ice along with melting of Greenland glaciers and Siberian permafrost peat bogs will increase the rise of sea level. According to a recent estimate of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was projected that the sea level could rise between 6 and 37 inches by 2100. As Antarctic glaciers are sliding into the ocean faster than expected, it may result in coastal flooding. Melting of polar and Greenland ice can upset the delicate salt balance in the North Atlantic Ocean, triggering a shift in the thermohaline current, which ironically may result in a local ice age in Northern Europe and parts of North America. Such imbalance may lead to a shift in ocean circulation patterns, which could wreck havoc with regional climates. Recent increase in sea surface temperatures are linked with more intense storms, hurricanes, Katrina, and Tsunami in various coastal regions. “We need to start serious measures to reduce greenhouse gases within the next decade, (and) if we don’t do something soon, we’re committed to 13-20 feet sea level rise in the future”, said Mr Jonathan Overpeck, Director, Institute for Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, USA.

Risk of sea level rise along the American coastal regions is likely to be greater than the global average. An EPA report reveals that along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts a 30 cm rise in sea level is likely to be occurred by 2025. Average elevation of New Orleans is about two metres below sea level and parts of Texas, San Jose, and Long Beach are about one metre below the sea level. According to former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administrator Dr James Baker, an international organisation of scientists ranked New Orleans as the North American city most vulnerable to climate change. Projection in the EPA study highlights sea levels in the American coastlines to be rose up to ten inches by 2050 and almost two feet by 2100. Furthermore, the study also estimates the possibility of a two feet rise by 2050, a four feet rise by 2100, and a fifteen feet rise by the year 2200. “Even with current global populations, a 20-inch-rise in sea levels without an adaptive measures directly threatens 92 million people. Making matters worse, Americans are moving to coastal areas at the rate of 3,600 each day,” said Dr Baker.

On an average, the Himalayan glaciers are receding at an accelerating rate of 10-15 metres per year and Gangotri glacier in India is receding at an average rate of 23 metres per year. The Himalayan glaciers that feed into seven of Asian’s greatest rivers—the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, and Huange He—are year-round water supply for millions of people in China and Indian subcontinent. “The rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers will first increase the volume of water in rivers causing widespread flooding,” said Ms Jennifer Morgan, Director, WWF Global Climate Change Programme. In her statement she expressed the fear of massive economic and environmental problems in western China, Nepal, and Northern India if this global warming is still on the rise.

Mass Extinction

Underneath the surface of our earth are buried fossils of many extinct creatures of the bygone eras. Around 440 million years ago, the first recorded mass extinction—the Ordovician Extinction, one of deadliest five great extinctions—took place. Fossil record of Ordovician era shows that two-third of the earth’s species were died in a catastrophe. Around 375 million years ago, during the Devonian period, another mass extinction of almost all of the planet’s fish species occurred. The third mass extinction that occurred around 250 million years ago was the ‘Great Dying’ or Permian-Triassic extinction where the die-off resulted in loss of almost all marine life and land species. At the end of the Triassic period, the fourth mass extinction took place around 205 million ago. And the latest extinction or the fifth one took place around 65 million years ago. During the extinction, 165-million-year-old majestic era of dinosaurs was ended in the catastrophe. Today, it’s quite doubtful whether the phenomenon of ‘global warming’ could result in the sixth mass extinction on the earth.

In a scientific study pertaining to 1,400 plants and animal species, a group of researchers at Stanford’s Institute for International Studies determined that about 80 percent of the species have undergone behavioural changes likely caused by climate change. Referring to the estimate of 3-10oF increase by the end of the century, Mr Terry Root, leader of the Stanford researchers, said, “If we have had so much change with just 1 degree, think of how much we will have with 10 degrees. In my opinion, we’re sitting on the edge of a mass extinction.”

As a part of conveyor belt, the Gulf Stream moves northward from the south Atlantic. Conveyor sinks to the bottom of the Atlantic in the vicinity of Greenland, this belt is the reason Europe enjoys relatively mild temperatures. If the conveyor slows or stops, this could result in the temperature of Europe much colder than it is now. For instance, without it, the climate of England might be as cold as that of northern Canada. The worry is that melting of Arctic ice and thawing permafrost might dilute the salty current and so it may halt or weaken the heat-bearing conveyor belt. “Ice in the ocean which freezes, of course, is saltwater when it freezes. But after it sits around for a while, a lot of the salt is ejected and it becomes fresh. That means if the planet warms, there will be a region on the planet—western Europe—which may actually get colder because of the Gulf stream becoming weaker”, reasoned Prof Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Jersey.

Professor Robock pointed out the occurrence of a warming about 7000 years ago. At that time the conveyor belt collapsed and it became cold for a while in Europe. The collapse might occur every 1500 years or so during the Ice Age. But today, collapse of the conveyor belt could occur, not in 1500 years, but over decades or centuries. Oceans play a major role in rapid climate changes, but so far the mechanics of such changes are poorly understood by all of us. Atmospheric scientist David Battisti of the University of Washington stated that the bigger and faster it is, the harder it will be to deal with; global warming can happen in less than a human generation, but it will persist for thousands of years.