The elections in Nepal became significant on many counts; about 67 percent of Nepal’s 17.6 million exercised their franchise in the historic elections. Perhaps the most significant part of the elections was landslide victory of Maoists or CPN (Maoist).

The election, an offspring of a peace deal struck between King Gyanendra and the Maoist rebels in 2006, saw the U-turn of Maoists from decade-long insurgency, which claimed 14,000 lives. The Maoists led by its firebrand leader Prachanda decided to join elections and the rest is now history. The party’s unpredicted win has added a new political dimension to Nepal’s domestic politics at the same time it put the country’s journey into many fronts very unpredictable.

Polls after Pact

The country’s monarch, King Gyanendra, gave up most powers after an uprising against his direct rule. There was all round enthusiasm to elect a Constituent Assembly—a body of 601 members. The new Assembly is primarily tasked with writing a new constitution. Implicitly included in its agenda is the fate of the Nepalese monarchy. With a term of two years, the Assembly will also govern the country in the interim till a government is formed.

Fourth Election

This is the fourth multiparty election in Nepal since the restoration of democracy in 1990. In 1950, the late King Tribhuvan promised the election of a Constituent Assembly but successive rulers prevented it from happening. The Maoists waged a decade-long “people’s war” demanding, among other things, the founding of a republic and the election of a Constituent Assembly.

The Maoist Manifesto

Aptly titled “New Ideology, New Leadership, New Nepal” the manifesto is a grandiosely worded document. It calls for a presidential system modelled after the US, with the president as head of state, commander-in-chief and chief executive, but also seeks to raise the per-capita income from the current US$270 to US$3,000 in 10 years. Bhattarai, the chief architect of the document, claims that in 40 years Nepal will become one of the richest countries in the world.

The Communists in Nepal were unified until the Maoists abandoned the democratic process in 1994 and opted for the revolutionary path. Through their decade-long war, the Maoists have eaten into the UML vote bank. The Maoists dominate the rural areas, especially the Western Nepal strongholds. This has made penetration by other parties difficult and dangerous. Next to the UML, the Maoists are gunning for royalist parties, which have become less relevant after the dismantling of the monarchy. Its key leaders, Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai derive their inspiration from Peru’s Shining Path rebels.

Prachanda’s Vision

Contrary to speculations, a triumphant Prachanda underlined his vision of carrying ahead the peace process in the country. He also expressed willingness to work with Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala in the near future. “For the international community and especially our neighbours India and China, I want to say that our party wants good relations with all of them and is willing to work together on development and peace process,” said Prachanda.

As the Maoists want a presidential system to replace the monarchy, in all probability their founder Prachanda would become the country’s supreme leader. “We are committed to the peace process and multi-party democracy and to rebuild this country”, said the newly elected Maoist leader.

Maoist Movement

The Maoist movement played an active role alongside mainstream political parties in demolishing Nepal’s monarchy. They openly challenged King Gyanendra’s authority with attack on Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) bases in the Solu-Khumbu region. On 26 November 2001, the king declared a state of emergency, suspended civil rights and brought the army in to attack Maoists. By 2000, Maoists began to wage an effective insurgency that controlled a significant part of mid-Western Nepal, especially in the Rolpa and Rukum districts.

In early 2005, the Maoists controlled almost the entire area of Nepal outside Kathmandu. For his part, Gyanendra dismissed a series of governments, which failed to find a way to restart the electoral process or bring the Maoists to the negotiating table. After the controversial palace massacre in 2001, a series of mistakes brought about the king’s gradual demise. He insisted on fighting the Maoist rebels on his own and attempted to size absolute power.

On 01 February 2005, Gyanendra declared a second state of emergency. He heaped scorn on the political parties, and emphasised the special bond between his dynasty and the people of Nepal. In the days that followed many activists went underground.

End of Monarchy

In January this year, Nepal’s interim parliament formally declared the country a secular republic. Gyanendra’s portrait has disappeared from shop walls and the currency. “Royal” has been removed from the name of the army and national airline. References to the king are gone from the national anthem. Gyanendra has also endured other indignities. His US$3.1 million annual allowance and 10 of the family’s palaces were taken away, as were the queen’s beauticians and about half of his ceremonial guard.

Road Ahead

It is time to behold the yet to be ushered Maoist-led government mandated by its people to write a new constitution of the Himalayan nation. As the newly powered Maoist party has a wider developmental scope on their agenda, the foremost point they have agreed under the UN-sponsored disarmament programme was immediate end of any kind of atrocities. “The Maoists promised the Earth to poor, marginalised people and also ran a country-wide campaign of fear and intimidation to win the elections,” quoted Himal magazine.

Some political observers see contradicting viewpoints in the manifesto of the Maoists, which calls for scrapping of many major treaties. “We have some big issues here. India and the US are not going to be comfortable with a Nepal dominated by Maoists,” quoted Samaya newspaper.

India Reacts

India hailed the Nepal elections as a ‘welcome and historic step’ towards realising the aspirations of the people for a democratic future. On the speculation that the Maoist-government in Nepal will make India rapidly reassess its evaluation of bilateral policies, India declared its ‘readiness’ to work with any new government in Nepal.

Shiva Shankar Mukherjee, Indian Ambassador to Nepal said, “India accepts the mandate given by the people of Nepal and would work with the next government irrespective of the party coming to power”. But the set back could be that Nepal-India bilateral trades will take a backseat as the communist group has vowed to curtail India’s role in the new government.

On the relations with China, the Maoist government is likely to add some good provisions. China is likely to get the pride of place in infrastructure building. It is believed that a China-built rail link connecting Chitwan and Kathmandu via Lhasa will be in place. From the Indian side, too, there had been demands to link Janakpur in the plains with Patna or Kolkata.