The dawn of 2009 brought with it a befitting gift for Bangladesh — a massive mandate by its people for peace, development and also importantly, hope for revival of the very Bengali essence of life, which had been severely eroded over the half a decade of rule by the Bangladesh National Party (BNP).

The Awami League (AL), known for its struggle for liberation of erstwhile East Pakistan against suppression by the Punjabi-dominated Army and Army-dominated Government of erstwhile West Pakistan and achieved the aim of independence with birth of Bangladesh in December 1971, routed the BNP in an election, that was unprecedentedly peaceful and high in turnout of voters.

Referring to this election as a resounding endorsement of democracy and an emphatic victory for pluralism in the world’s second-largest Muslim majority country, human rights activist and SAJA forum contributor Asif Saleh opined in The Guardian that two miracles happened in Bangladesh. Firstly, 80 percent of the Bangladeshi electorate — a record number — voted in one of the most peaceful elections in the country’s history and secondly, they voted for a party that believes in secularism and by a majority big enough for it to control 85 percent of the parliamentary seats. In an interview with CNN, Asif explained that much of the Awami League’s success lay in its ability to turn out the youth vote, with promises of jobs and a long term perspective called Vision 2021. (www.sajaforum.org/2008/12/bangladesh-secular-coalition-wins-election-in-a-landslide.html)

Rout of BNP

Mahfuz Anam stated in The Daily Star that what was neither explainable by the anti-incumbency factor nor simply by people’s desire for a change, was the “massiveness of the rejection of the BNP”. The defeat of this once mighty party, which the last time got two-third’s majority, was the “clearest and strongest possible message by the people of their disgust for what happened from 2001 to 2006 and punishment of BNP” and its allies for the way they ruled the country. The votes, he added, were a “…complete and comprehensive rejection of the BNP and its allies for corruption, political violence, nepotism, Hawa Bhavan, the role of Tarique, Arafat, Falu, Harris, Babar, etc. for obliterating the distinction between the State, government and the party, politicising every branch of administration, for instituting a culture of impunity where party henchmen considered themselves above the law….for turning a blind eye as terrorism and fundamentalism spread ugly tentacles throughout the country”.

According to media reports, Bangladesh’s chief election commissioner, Shamsul Huda, defended the election as free and fair. The election commission had drawn up a computerized list of 81 million registered voters for this election and purged 11 million fake voters from the roll, he said.

“The voting was arranged in such a way that there is no scope for rejecting the result,” he told reporters. “About 1,500 foreign and 200,000 local observers were monitoring the whole election process, and there is no reason for anyone to complain.”

Good Governance

An editorial in the Wall Street Journal Asia found “good news” in the results, stating “this is no small accomplishment for a Muslim country with a small but menacing Islamist fringe”, but cautioned that the AL bears a heavy burden of delivering clean governance to an electorate exhausted by the corruption that has marred most Bangledeshi governments since independence in 1971. Both Sheikh Hasina of AL and Khaleda Zia of BNP faced prosecution in the past two years on corruption charges stemming from their earlier stints. The new Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina’s manifesto included a pledge to encourage more private investment in sectors like power and infrastructure, with the government already cutting its economy growth projection for the current fiscal year to 6.2 percent from 6.5 percent, Bangladesh must brace itself for possible fallout from the global slowdown.

Threat of Terrorism

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organised a round table on ‘Growing Terrorism in South Asia: Evolving Common Strategies’ on January 21, 2009, at New Delhi, attended by members of the strategic community and a delegation from Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies (BIPSS) led by its President, Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, (retd).

Gen Muniruzzaman said that terrorism could destabilise the peace and security of the region. “That’s why we have to think beyond our boundaries to look for the solution. Bangladesh like India is a victim of terrorism. A few years back Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) launched series of terrorist attacks by conducting 487 bomb blasts in 63 out of 64 districts across the country within half an hour. The bomb blasts proved the capabilities of the terrorist organisation. The stated policy of Bangladesh is not to tolerate terrorism be it of any form. That is why most of the culprits were caught and executed in accordance with the law of the land. This stringent action of the government against the terrorists remained instrumental in checking the activities of the group. The recent intelligence analysis has shown that the group is once again organising its cadre and expanding its base in a different manner. But now the JMB is emerging with a number of splinter groups”. He added that unlike the JMB, the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) has regional footprints. HuJI is the only group with capacity to link up with groups in India and Pakistan. It also has connections with Al Qaeda and Osama-bin-laden. HuJI is prepared to carryout operations anywhere and anytime. There are a number of religious and leftist terrorist groups capable of operating within Bangladesh.

Radicalisation of Society

This has resulted because of the radicalisation of society. Bangladesh society is under transition and is also under the tremendous pressure from radical groups. This helps fringe elements to carry out terrorist attacks and to survive in society. Terror attacks on India have Bangladesh links. It is extremely important to know about their coordination styles and how these groups launch joint operations across the borders. The growing capacity of the Maoists and expanding red corridor have become a cause of concern and demands immediate attention. Their larger plan includes covering entire Nepal and large parts of India and Bangladesh.

With CLAWS having sponsored my latest book, ‘Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge’ (Knowledge World), which deals with both illegal migration and Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) actively coordinating terrorist activities from Bangladesh into Assam, its Director, Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) invited me to speak at this round-table. I elaborated on the severe blow to ‘Bengaliyat’ -meaning Bengali ethos and culture — which I had enjoyed the experience of during my visit there — dealt by ISI and fundamentalist forces in Bangladesh during the tenure of BNP.

ULFA Factor

Brigadier Kanwal observed that terrorism generated, supported and spread from the Bangladeshi soil poses another grave challenge to India’s security and that it cannot be denied that United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is sheltered inside Bangladesh despite the state being against all such activities.

Dr Smruti S Pattanaik, working on Bangladesh at Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, during a discussion with me, said that Sheikh Hasina’s governmemt seems sincere and that there is no reason why Dhaka should not hand over ULFA boss, Paresh Barua to India, as this would be important in improving India-Bangladesh bilateral ties, which were quite strained during BNP’S rule. She further stated that settling the border with India was a Bangladeshi demand and it is in India’s interest to do so. On the influx, she stated that Bangladesh needed to recognise the issue of Bangladeshi immigration to India. Unless it acknowledges the problem it would be difficult to address it and to issue work permits, which would be a good idea to utilise labour.

The period straddling the New Year 2009 has indeed been eventful for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the US. In India, the multi-mode, multi-target attack in Mumbai planned and implemented from Pakistan has had an unprecedented fallout. Pakistan’s military and its civilian leadership went through contortions for over two months before the latter admitting that the perpetrators are from their country — that too after considerable prodding by US, whose forces in Afghanistan are being attacked by Al Qaeda and Taliban, which have many allied terrorist groups in Pakistan, which are causing serious harm to it. Both Barrack Obama and Sheikh Hasina have taken over as heads of their states at a very crucial time; both have a lot to undo and do; both have been welcomed and are being viewed with great hopes by India and both will stand to benefit their respective nations by fulfilling India’s hopes.

As this feature was going to the press, there came a very encouraging announcement by the AL government- of its coming to an agreement with India to hand over Anup Chetia, the ULFA leader who has been in a Bangladeshi jail since 1996. Mr Hasan Mahmud, Bangladesh’s foreign minister who is also a special assistant to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was quoted by bdnews24.com, New Delhi on 18 February 2009 : “We have mutually agreed on the handover, now we have to decide on the formalities of how to hand him over. It will also include handover of Bangladeshi criminals who have fled to India…..Since 2001, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami had ministers in their government who chanted slogans to turn Bangladesh into Afghanistan…..they nurtured a range of terrorist organizations….Terrorism in Bangladesh started and then flourished under that government” Mahmud also admitted to cross-border linkages of terrorist groups based in Bangladesh and informed that terror groups like the banned Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islam- Bangladesh (HuJI-B) still existed in underground pockets in Bangladesh. They are banned, but they are in hideouts now,” he said. Asked whether the Bangladesh government was trying to trace HuJI hideouts, Mahmud assured: “Definitely, we are trying to find out their locations.” He promised a Bangladeshi crackdown on militant groups. “Since terrorist attacks have been happening in the region in the past few months, even in Mumbai, there are cross-border linkages of these terrorists….Not only Lashker ((Laskhar-e-Taiba) and HuJI, but other terror organisations also….They trained in Afghanistan, they were in Pakistan, then they came here. It is dangerous….They cooperate among themselves, now we have to cooperate among ourselves in the region to combat them,” he said.

Welcome Change

The sum total of the foreign minister’s statement-coming nineteen years after ULFA’s entry into Bangladesh-is a diplomatic windfall for India and a body blow to ULFA. Both countries will nonetheless have to maintain pressure while being wary, as these groups are bound to retaliate. India and Bangladesh must seize the opportunity to turn the tide in a major geo-strategic part of South Asia, because the positive fallout will be not only peace, but also prosperity for Bangladesh and India’s North Eastern region.