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When Franklin D Roosevelt learned of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbour, he
marvelled that Japan would take on the United States. “What kind of people do
they think we are?” he said.
One must note that Japan formally didn’t declare war on the United States in
1941, but still went to launch a sneak attack on the Pacific Fleet stationed at
Hawaii, which was then not included as a state of the United States.
What happened after Pearl Harbour was history. However, it was true that Japan’s
attack on Pearl Harbour was a tactical victory with operational and strategic
failure.
In a similar vein, the recent Pakistan army’s initiation in the Line of Control
over the killing of two Indian soldiers and continuous ceasefire violation
(established in 2003) is in many ways is an audacious effort. The issue at
present is within the reach of the two armies at the tactical level within the
border, and operational level with India’s Northern Command ready to exercise
“lot of options”
Despite repeated warnings from Indian side, Pakistan has violated the norms of
the existing cease fire even after a Brigadier-level flag meeting between the
two countries.
At present, the issue is at the tactical and operational level, as stated by
General Bikram Singh, Chief of Army Staff. In particular, as stated by the
General, the Northern Command will retaliate to Pakistan’s attack. It is also
true that Pakistan, whose record on human rights is very poor within its border,
has acted in a ‘gruesome’ and ‘unpardonable’ way, as pointed out by General
Bikram Singh.
Islamabad’s Insecurities
But far from the occurrences at the border-level, it is to be understood that
India, from being a regional power in the South Asia, is trying to expand its
power and status in the international arena and is actively courted by western
powers to contain China in the newly coined Indo-Pacific region. Pakistan, which
has always felt insecure about New Delhi’s rise, has always tried to box India
in South Asia with repeated provocations, including cross-border terrorism and
most recently, violating the accepted cease-fire agreement. It is a coincidence
that whenever Washington wants to move itself away from South-Central Asia and
concentrate its efforts towards containing China in the Asia-Pacific region, it
is Islamabad, and not Beijing, that suffers increased insecurity.
To buttress the above argument, 26/11 in Mumbai happened exactly when more
pressure was supposedly to be exerted on Pakistan from Washington for both
counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan. Islamabad
feels that whenever there is more international pressure on it then there is a
way out to distract this attention by bringing the issue of Jammu and Kashmir to
the highlight of the international media.
New Delhi’s Cautious Response
Those in India, which happens to have a favourable policy towards Pakistan,
should understand that the world, especially countries in the Asia Pacific, view
India differently, especially since New Delhi is expected to act as a
counter-weight to China in the region, both economically and militarily. With
such an expectation, the last thing that anybody would like to see is an Indian
soldier being treated brutally by the Pakistan army in complete violation of the
existing diplomatic codes established in the Geneva Convention.
India has, in fact, treated Pakistan with more care than it actually deserves
with repeated diplomatic overtones and confidence building measures. Even now,
the Indian army has shown tremendous restraint despite repeated prodding from
across the border. Diplomatically, the Indian government has exercised pressure
on Islamabad by summoning the Pakistan High Commissioner and expressed its
displeasure over this gross violation of the existing cease-fire.
However, as pointed by General Bikram Singh, there is a limit to the patience of
both the Indian Army, the second largest in the world and the Indian public in
general. The Indian Army, which has adhered to professional civilian control
over it has got enough powers within the operational and tactical reach to
retaliate if provoked repeatedly from across the border. We cannot discount the
numerical superiority of the Indian armed forces with respect to Pakistan -
India’s three strike corps alone would be able to decide a full-fledged war, a
fact that Pakistan’s establishment is well aware of.
Pakistan has always taunted India with the option of limited protracted war
strategy under a nuclear blackmail very well understanding that the former
cannot withstand a full-fledged war with India, either conventionally or in
terms of nuclear weapons. But the ploy is to bring the Western powers,
especially Washington, to play the role of an arbitrator in an Indo-Pakistan
dialogue. As pointed by former US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice,
“Pakistan is an international migraine”
Evaluating Strategic Options
The Indian political establishment needs to understand that unlike its own army
which is professional, Pakistan’s army is both Praetorian and, in recent times,
has become Revolutionary under the influence of Islam. Therefore, the tactical
and operational dealings are more in tune with a strategy to get more attention
from Washington.
The ceasefire violations have come exactly at a time when Pakistan will be faced
with two specific strategic dilemmas. First, with the exit of the International
Security Assistance Force from Afghanistan in 2014, the importance to the Af-Pak
region will decrease in Washington’s strategic calculus. Second, with the
Washington’s forward military policy aimed at containing China in the Asia
Pacific, Pakistan has to take an urgent call on whether it would align with the
United States or China. Considering its inability to answer these contentious
strategic issues in a pragmatic manner, Pakistan has resorted to the tried and
tested policy of provoking New Delhi for a military action in LoC. India’s
strategic establishment should find out a way of putting Pakistan’s in its place
operationally, and determining an effective strategic response for Islamabad’s
increased aggressiveness.
There are two specific options in place. First, the use of Special Operation
Forces from Indian side to counter Pakistan’s brutality and, second, to
contemplate the use of the Cold Start Doctrine for retaliation across the
border. The Indian Army will be happy to use either of the two options, or at
least one of it, but the call will be a strategic one that the Indian political
establishment needs to take.
It is time that India’s democratically elected government understands both the
sentiments of Indian public and the Indian Army, and asks the right question to
Pakistan “What kind of people do you think we are?”
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