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The assassination of secular, opposition leader Chokri Belaid, on February 6 has
once again thrown Tunisia into turmoil. His murder was viewed by critics as an
attempt to silence the ‘revolution’ and replace the one man dictatorship with a
junta of ‘community gatekeepers’ (a kind of Arab Mutauwa). Prime Minister Hamadi
Jebali termed the assassination a “heinous crime against Tunisian people...
against principles of the revolution” and announced to form a national unity
cabinet comprising mainly neutral technocrats. However, the secular
intelligentsia seriously doubts the Islamist Ennhada party since they perceive
it to be sympathetic to the ultra-conservative Salafists, whose activities have
increased considerably since the Ennhada came to power in October 2011.
Furthermore, Belaid’s murder symbolises the growing intolerance in secular
Tunisia; consequently, there are chances that the fragile democracy in Tunisia
may be derailed. It has also highlighted the current political stalemate in the
country’s post-revolutionary transition process, which was “so admired by
neighbours such as Egypt and Libya, besieged by their own turmoil.”
Time for Renaissance
The Ennhada party, which means renaissance or rebirth, emerged as the single
largest party by securing more than 41 percent votes and around 90 of the 217
seats in parliament. It formed a coalition government with two non-Islamic
secular parties, Marzouki’s Congress for the Republic and the leftist Ettakatol
party. The political alliance between the Islamist and centre-left secular
parties had not only brought jubilation to Tunisian society, but was also seen
as setting a precedent that Islam and different ideologies in the entire Arab
world are compatible. Looking at the deep-rooted secular ethos in Tunisian
society, the Islamist party made several major changes since it started its
first election campaign, particularly after the departure of Zain Al Abidin Ben
Ali in January 2011. The party changed its Islamist label to Islamic to shield
itself from negative connotations of hardliners; its leaders unambiguously
announced that the party accepted the universal notion of citizenship. Its
leaders also accepted gender equality enshrined in the Personal Status Code and
tried to assure secularists that Sharia would not be the basis of the
constitution. Allaying any apprehensions, Rachid Gahnnouchi, the London-exiled
Ennhada leader, equated Tunisia with Turkey and claimed “we are the descendants
of the same movement.”
Salafists Gaining Ground
However, contrary to drumming up secular ethos, the Islamist party also
supported ultra-conservative hardliners, who view the Ennhada party as God’s
party, which assigns them with the holy task of reforming Tunisia. The Salafists
are not ready to accept the growth of progressive forces and have frequently
engaged in reversing the secular fabric of the country. Their successive
attempts to vandalise the shrines of Sufi saints, including that of Sidi Sahbi a
companion of Prophet Mohammed, and destruction of hotels serving alcohol in the
country, is seen as being retrogressive. Belaid, who accused the League of the
Protection of the Revolution to be the Ennhada party’s militia, had indicated
that all those who opposed Ennhada would become a target. The ruling Islamist
party’s silence towards such developments is being perceived as sympathetic to
the Salafists. In addition, people suspect the Ennhada party’s decision to
reject Prime Minister Jebali’s proposal to form a technocratic national unity
cabinet as a political move to cajole the Salafists.
Looking at the growing influence of hardliners, particularly in the backdrop of
Belaid’s assassination, acid being thrown on a woman for her western attire and
attempts to control 5000 mosques, it appears that the Ennhada is taking help of
the ultra-conservatives to remain in power, either by suppressing the opposition
or winning the Salafist vote bank in its favour. Such a strategy will, in the
long run, strengthen the hardliners politically. The situation will worsen in
Tunisia when they eventually get a political opportunity to influence principles
of the constitution formation.
Political Repercussions
The impact of Chokri Belaid’s killing has once again led to a serious debate
over the political compatibility of Islam with democracy, not only in Tunisia,
but in the entire Arab world. The assassination will potentially exacerbate the
secular-Islamist divide in Tunisia and polarise society. Suppression of
political freedom, particularly in a country moving towards democratisation, is
likely to lead to the domination of Salafists. This will, consequently, affect
the impending constitution making processes. While the murder of a prominent
opposition leader is seen as growing intolerance in Tunisian society,
suppression of the freedom of speech and opposition to government’s policies
will erode the democratic ethos of the country. All of this could push Tunisia
once again into the worst kind of dictatorial trap. The worst sufferers would be
women and the liberal section of the Tunisian society. Growing extremism in
Tunisia may force the liberal section to invite foreign intervention, like in
Mali.
Economic Impact
The repercussions of the growing intolerance in Tunisian society will definitely
affect the economy, which will ultimately boomerang upon the ruling Ennhada
party itself. In fact, the success of Ennhada has been linked largely to the
hope it generated among the people about economic growth. During elections, the
biggest concerns of Tunisians were economy, employment and corruption.
Tunisians, particular the youth, voted Ennhada to power in the hope of getting a
better life by overthrowing the highly corrupt, nepotistic and repressive
regime. The revolutionaries were of the view that the Islamist party, which
assured a better future during the election campaign, would encourage inclusive
economic growth.
However, the ruling party has not been able to deliver on its promises. Tunisia
continues to grapple with high unemployment rate, inflation and slow economic
growth. It has been unable to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), which had
historically played a key role in sustaining the economy. A survey by the
Tunisian National Institute of Statistics reveals that the unemployment rate,
which was around 13 percent in 2010, increased to 19 percent during the
revolution, and is still hovering at 17.6 percent. Consequently, it has led to
approximately 691,700 Tunisians being unemployed.
The growing intolerance will further constrain the government’s economic
capacity since it will discourage not only foreign investors, but also keep
tourists away from Tunisia. Tourism plays a significant role in the Tunisian
economy; it is a significant source of foreign currency, contributing
approximately seven percent to the GDP and employing 500,000 people, second only
to the agricultural sector. Since the turmoil erupted, the number of tourist
footfalls has declined from seven million in 2010 to four million in 2011. This
has severely affected the catering industry, leading to the closure of 25 luxury
hotels, costing 3,500 jobs and around one billion Tunisian dinnars. Besides, a
drift to ultra-conservative ideology will also affect the flow of FDI, which has
mostly come from European countries. Although Tunisia is rich in mineral
resources, particularly phosphate rocks used in fertilizers, it has neither the
money nor the technology to exploit the resources. Tunisia needs a stable,
investor-friendly and peaceful environment in order to encourage FDI and
generate employment.
Prognosis
Undoubtedly, Tunisia is passing through turbulence. However, the one positive
aspect is that the deepening of democracy, which began with the ‘Jasmine
Revolution’, has led to the overthrow of an extremely corrupt and authoritarian
regime. Today, Tunisia has more than 90 registered political parties, which
itself is indicative of the fact that democratic ethos and political liberalism
is being strengthened. It is also becoming increasingly clear that hardliners
cannot stifle the freedom and will of 12 million secular and peace-loving
Tunisians, who are very often propelled and fostered by the highly-educated
middle class and apolitical military.
However, it is necessary for all stakeholders in Tunisia to remain patient and
observe restraint. The Army should not jump to reverse the democratic order, and
political parties should not encourage intolerance and must refrain from
suppressing the voices of the opposition. The sacrifices and ideals of the
‘Jasmine Revolution’ should not be wasted. It would only reach its fullest glory
when Tunisia, the ‘poster child’ of the Arab Spring, once again beckons the
entire Arab world by making Islam compatible with democracy and market economy.
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