The US President Barack Obama wrapped up his first visit to Russia with the confidence that the relations between the two nations are improving. His address at a university graduation ceremony in Russia outlined this vision and hoped for a future, including a desire for a strong and prosperous Russia.

During his 30-minute speech at Moscow’s New Economic School, Obama frequently referred to history, praising Russia’s heritage and dismissing Cold War thinking - with all its suspicion - as having no place in current US-Russia relations.

“To begin with, let me be clear. American wants a strong, peaceful and prosperous Russia,” he said.

Convergence of Ideas

The US President picked up on one of the main themes he had discussed with his counterpart President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. That is, Russia and the US may be different - and have major differences - but the world is a better place when they work together. He said that particularly applies in areas such as fighting terrorism, promoting economic cooperation and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.

Obama noted, “It’s difficult to forge a lasting partnership between former adversaries. It is hard to change habits that have been engrained in our governments and our bureaucracies for decades”.

“But I believe that on the fundamental issues that will shape this century, Americans and Russians share common interests that form a basis for cooperation.”

Obama told the audience that states should enjoy the rights of having secure borders and their own foreign policies - a reference to Moscow’s opposition to the NATO aspirations of neighbouring Ukraine and Georgia, whose forces fought with Russian troops last year over the Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. “Any system that cedes those rights will lead to anarchy,” he said.

“Together we can build a world where people are protected, prosperity is enlarged and our power truly serves progress and it is all in your hands,” he said.

Praise for Putin

Both Obama and Putin appeared keen to bridge over differences as they met for the first time for a breakfast meeting at Putin’s forest residence outside Moscow. Obama praised Putin’s “extraordinary work … on behalf of the Russian people” as president and prime minister, while Putin said he was “glad to have the opportunity to get acquainted” with Obama.

Obama’s pro-Medvedev course did not surprise analysts. His strategy toward Russia is significantly shaped by Michael McFaul, a renowned Russia expert at Stanford University who advises Obama. In a March 2008 interview, McFaul was on record that he considered Putin had stabilized Russia as a myth and argued that Medvedev was the “best” alternative.

In a clear reference to Iran and North Korea, Medvedev said there were regions in which nuclear bombs could cause huge problems. Russia would work on solutions with its partners, he said, talking of a “common, joint responsibility.”

The two leaders did not sign a new, binding disarmament treaty, but signed a preliminary agreement with very detailed targets which Russia and the US want to reach in the next round of disarmament talks. It will now be difficult for either of them to let the negotiations for a successor agreement to the START I treaty, which expires at the end of the year, fail without losing face — especially as Obama announced that the agreement will be reached later this year.

In Moscow, the two leaders laid down a framework for that agreement. The number of warheads should be decreased by 1,500 to 1,675 and delivery systems should be cut by 500 to 1,100. If this were to become reality, it would reduce the nuclear arsenals of both countries by about one-third. Obama would be closer to the realization of his vision of a nuclear-free world, and Russia too could bask in the glow of this success and feel happy to be an equal partner with the US.

Missile Shield

Although Obama is still convinced that the planned US missile shield system with its installations in Poland and the Czech Republic can provide no defense against Russia’s nuclear arsenal, Obama shows understanding for Russian opposition to the scheme. Obama said that Medvedev had told him he was “very concerned” about the missile shield and raised the prospect of working with the Russians to find a solution — even if an agreement would take time. Medvedev in turn welcomed the fact that the US was now listening to the Russian view that defensive weapons systems also need to be taken into account when it comes to maintaining balance in the international system.

Obama actually wants to reduce the number of nuclear warheads for long-range missiles to around 1,000 in an initial step. Medvedev is talking about having less than 1,700 in a continuation of the Start I treaty, which expires in December. Russia, also hit by the financial crisis, cannot introduce its expensive Topol-M missile system as fast as planned, and maintaining its missile forces costs an estimated US$3.5 billion per year. That suggested agreement can be reached on a reduction in the arsenal.

Moscow’s dilemma is that deeper reduction will under cut its strategic relevance vis-à-vis the Americans and Chinese. Washington heavily outguns Russia in terms of conventional weapons and Beijing is rapidly arming up. Russia wants to avoid at all costs shrinking to the status of other mid-size nuclear powers such as France and Britain.

Core Differences

There is fundamental disagreement with the US, when it comes to former Soviet states that gained independence in the early 1990s. America wants them closer to the West, while Medvedev regards them as being part of Russia’s ‘privileged sphere of influence.’

Apart from the Caucasus, Ukraine offers the biggest source of conflict. If the country of 46 million people, from whose capital Kiev the Russian empire originated, were to join NATO, Russia would lose the base of its Black Sea fleet on the Crimean peninsula.