There was pervasive global interest in the 20 August presidential elections of Afghanistan. Despite an overwhelming verdict, the elections were drowned in controversies of rigging.

The 5.6 million votes counted have seen the incumbent, Hamid Karzai, leading with 54.6 percent over his main competitor, Abdullah Abdullah, who could garner only 28 percent of the vote. The Independent Election Commission (IEC), composed of three international observers and two independent Afghans, declared Karzai as the preliminary winner, though European Union observers alleged massive electoral fraud. The credibility of the elections came under question when in one of the polling stations all the votes were cast in favour of a single candidate with his rival drawing a blank.

The EU Observation Mission to Afghanistan says that around 1.5 million votes cast in the elections were suspicious, including 1.1 million for Karzai and 300,000 for Abdullah. However, Karzai dismisses allegations of rigging as something that is common place all over the world.

One of Karzai’s ministers (Abdul Karim Khurram) even accused western powers of trying to put pressure on the incumbent to accept a power-sharing arrangement with his rivals. “The purpose of this pressure is to have a weak and dependent government that cannot stand on its own feet,” the media quoted Khurram as saying.

Fraud Detection

The UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has already ordered a recount and forensic audit of ballot boxes and ballots in any district where the turnout was 100 percent (or more) or one candidate won more than 95 percent of the votes. Chances are that if Karzai stays with his current tally of votes even after the recount, he can escape a repoll between him and Abdullah.

According to the complaints received by the ECC, ballot box-stuffing has been widely reported in Kandahar, Paktika, Faryab and Kabul provinces, which were won by Karzai, and Badghis and Ghor where Abdullah was victorious

Repoll can be Tough

The run-off order, if necessary, is expected in October, but balloting will be impossible before April 2010 because of the arrival of the cold weather, which will keep people from trekking to the polling stations to cast their vote. This can put questions of legitimacy to Karzai’s continuance as President. The alternative solution is to strike out some votes by election officials and leave Mr Karzai the winner. But it can provoke the opposition.

National Unity

Apart from the rigging charges, the most important question is who can hold Afghanistan together? The result of this election is going to determine the fate of democracy in Afghanistan. If the transition to power is smooth, democracy can take root and win public trust in Afghanistan.

A victory for Abdullah will mean strengthening the ranks of the Taliban, as the extremist group draws its numerical strength from the majority Pakhtuns who are more than 40 percent of the Afghans. Their sense of loss in Kabul can drive even the secular and nationalist Pakhtuns to the Taliban fold.

According to The Economist, Karzai is still the closest thing that Afghanistan can have as a national leader. Abdullah, or any other person, is nowhere close to that category of leadership. Although a Pakhtun, Karzai has never been accused of having used the ethnic card. He is popular both in India and Pakistan. So Karzai may be the bitter pill everyone has to swallow until his government becomes successfully democratic.

Coalition Idea

Western powers are trying to prevent a political crisis over Afghanistan’s disputed elections by encouraging opposition politicians to form a coalition with President Hamid Karzai. Diplomats hope Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah may strike a deal that would avoid long wrangling about the results at a time when the US is seeking to implement a fresh plan to contain the Taliban insurgency.

Although many observers see some form of coalition as the only realistic chance to overcome the divisive legacy of polls marred by evidence of widespread fraud, the prospects for a rapid breakthrough seem remote.

But Abdullah has ruled out working with Karzai slamming his administration. The former served as foreign minister in 2006. The west’s relations with Karzai have also deteriorated amid signs of electoral fraud. Western powers, anxious not to appear to be stage-managing Afghan politics have called for patience.

The recount may not be a panacea for intensifying political friction that could further polarize a country divided between Karzai’s Pashtun community in the south and northern minorities who back Abdullah.