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South Korean President Lee Myung Bak’s surprise visit to Dokdo (known as
Takeshima in Japan) over which Japan also claims sovereignty has worsened
diplomatic relations between Tokyo and Seoul. On August 10, hours after Lee’s
visit to the disputed territory, Japan recalled its ambassador to Seoul. Japan
is also considering the putting off of “shuttle diplomacy” under which the
leaders of both countries have held bilateral summit-level meetings annually.
Tokyo is also mulling the idea of taking the dispute for arbitration in the
International Court of Justice. These developments suggest that Japan-South
Korea relations may deteriorate further in coming months.
Both Japan and South Korea have centuries’ old claims on the territory on which
Lee landed on August 10. The territory, over which South Korea has had effective
control since 1954, lies 157 kilometres northwest of Japan’s Oki Island chain in
the Sea of Japan (known as East Sea in South Korea). The Korean historical
account suggests that Dokdo was incorporated in Korea in 512 AD during the Silla
Dynasty. However, Japan claims that the island has been part of its Shimane
prefecture since 1905; at that time, the island was uninhabited. The debate over
the sovereignty of the rocky outcrop has seen many diplomatic stand-offs between
Seoul and Tokyo. In the recent past, it has been heating up since 2006 when
Shimane prefecture started celebrating Takeshima day on February 22 every year.
In the past, Takeshima had served as a temporary watchtower for Japan during the
Russo-Japanese war and for the United States during the Korean War. Therefore,
it can be said that the island’s strategic location is fuelling the sovereignty
debate. Takeshima/Dokdo has an area of just 0.08 square miles, but sovereignty
over it would allow Japan to gain control over 200 nautical miles of Exclusive
Economic Zone around it and the resources that lie therein.
In recent years, Seoul has taken a series of steps to strengthen its claim over
the island, including the expansion of its naval airbase on the island of
Ulleung, which is aimed at boosting the defence of nearby islands including
Dokdo. The Japanese media, citing South Korean sources, has reported that South
Korea aims to complete the expansion of its naval airbase in Ulleung by 2017,
which will give it an effective edge over Tokyo to gain control of the disputed
territory.
The unprecedented visit by Lee has surprised many political analysts both in
Japan and Korea, since Lee, from the start of his presidential term in 2008, has
been trying to establish strong South Korea-Japan relations and on one occasion
had even termed Japan as an “ally that is closest” to South Korea. He, in fact,
tried his best to sign a military pact with Tokyo to share intelligence
information between South Korean and Japanese defence forces before succumbing
to public pressure and postponing a decision in this regard. A section of
analysts both in Japan and South Korea see Lee’s visit as motivated by domestic
concerns. The Asahi Shimbun, in its editorial, opined that “Lee’s visit to the
Islands appear to have been motivated more by domestic and political concerns
than by the Takeshima dispute or any other diplomatic issue.” The daily added
that “just as Lee began preparing for the final months of his term, set to end
in February, his elder brother and some close aides were arrested in scandals.
There is also growing discontent among South Koreans over widening gap in
incomes.” In a somewhat similar analysis, Korea Times editorialised that
“opposition parties were cool about Lee’s visit to Dokdo, dismissing it as a
‘political show’ intended to placate public opinion that turned sour in the wake
of wrongdoings implicating his close relatives and key aides”. And it added that
while “we do not know whether the trip is politically motivated,” Lee has
freedom to visit any place on “our territory.”
Seen from the perspective of Japan-South Korea relations over the last two
decades, Lee’s visit is not surprising. The relationship has seen many ‘warm and
cold’ phases and it has gone sour in the final year of presidential terms. South
Korean columnist Oh Tae-kyu, based on his analysis of the Japan-South Korea
love-hate relationship since the Kim Young-sam administration in the 1990s, has
termed it the “final year syndrome.” He had predicted the same about Lee’s
administration much before the latter’s visit to the contested territory.
However, the “final year syndrome” is likely to have a long term impact on
Japan-South Korea diplomatic relationship as Tokyo seems determined to take this
issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Japan had proposed to South
Korea that the matter be referred to the ICJ back in 1954 and 1962, but South
Korea refused to go down this path. At that time, foreign policy makers in Tokyo
desisted from taking the issue to the ICJ considering that such a step would
have an adverse impact on bilateral relations. However, recent statements of
Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba following Lee’s visit to the islets
suggest that he is determined to take the issue to ICJ and possibly launch a
diplomatic campaign to pressure South Korea into agreeing for an international
arbitration. As per the ICJ convention, the body takes up issues for arbitration
with mutual consent from parties contesting a territory. South Korea, on its
part, as of now, has opposed a referral of the issue to ICJ since it enjoys
effective control over the territory.
The Japan-South Korea diplomatic stand-off following Lee’s visit will have
repercussions on bilateral and regional cooperation. In the near term it will
have an adverse impact on Japan-South Korea economic relations. The two
countries were very close to concluding an Economic Partnership Agreement. At
the trilateral level, there have also been negotiations for a Free Trade
Agreement between Japan, South Korea and China. Since Japan has indicated that
it will suspend “shuttle diplomacy” there would be no meeting at the higher
political level between the two countries. The standoff will also scuttle the
chance to conclude two military agreements-Acquisition and Cross-Servicing
Agreement and General Security of Military Information Agreement-for which the
two countries have prepared the ground since January 2011.
Tensions between the two neighbours have already been simmering over history and
especially the ‘comfort women’ issue, and to these has been added the
territorial dispute with Lee’s visit to Takeshima/Dokdo. How historical issues
and territorial disputes between South Korea and Japan will pan out remains
uncertain. But these irritants, if allowed to linger further, will affect their
bilateral relations including the security cooperation they have envisaged given
common regional security concerns. Since Japan and South Korea have announced
many times that they share the common goal of ensuring peace and stability, the
escalation of the territorial dispute and historical issues between the two
neighbours will hinder that goal and will have wider implications for the
security situation in the region.
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